Data, sources and method
Where the numbers of Meteo Santa Croce come from: models, stations, webcams, cartography, computation method and stated limits.
Models
Forecasts come from Open-Meteo, one model per request: ICON-D2, AROME HD, ICON-EU, ECMWF IFS and IFS 0.25°. Access is on a commercial plan, so the runs are refreshed without courtesy limits.
The band shown around the forecast is the spread between models: narrow when the models agree, wide when they disagree. It is not a guaranteed probability, it is a measure of disagreement.
Stations
Lake station: a Davis Vantage Vue run by meteokitesantacroce.altervista.org, with history since 2024 exported from Meteotemplate.
vetercek.com relays the same station since 2022 and runs the Lago Morto station, in the Fadalto gorge, also since 2022.
Observations are polled every 10 minutes. Thanks to the station operators: without their work this site would not exist.
Webcams
From the webcam images we only derive qualitative, indicative signals: how cloudy it is, whether there is rain on the lens, whether kites are visible on the water. They are not measurements and do not enter the forecast computation.
Cartography
Maps use MapTiler tiles with an OpenStreetMap fallback. The elevation model is the Copernicus GLO-90 DEM, read through the Open-Meteo Elevation endpoint.
Method
The engine identifies the wind regime and turns it into an hourly window. Every rule parameter carries its provenance: LETT literature, LOC local sources, DATI station measurements, IPO assumption to be calibrated, CAL calibrated on data.
Every night a verification compares the forecast with the station and publishes the results; in parallel the rider diary records the judgement of whoever was on the water, which is the reference we use to tune the thresholds.
Limits
- A single anemometer on the lake: the distribution of wind over the water is not measured.
- The northern sector (Bora, NW synoptic) cannot be verified with the shore station alone.
- The 100 m detail map is a diagnostic computation, not verified point by point.
How to cite
Meteo Santa Croce, NPHYSIS SRL, https://meteosantacroce.it